In talking with friends about machine intelligence, I realized that I’ve been growing a web of beliefs over the past few years that are not necessarily all common knowledge. In this article, I’m going to try and map those out, as succinctly and clearly as possible. History has shown that making predictions is laughably ill-fated, marring experts and fools alike. In that spirit, I’m also writing this for the fun of looking back on it in years to come.
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